Ever since Dancing with the Stars announced the lineup for their all-athletes season following the Winter Olympics, there’s been a lurking worry that’s refused to go away: oh god, they’re not going to pit Adam Rippon against Tonya Harding in the finale, are they?

We can now answer that yes, of course they were always going to do that.

After a shocking semi-final that sent half the remaining athletes home (including figure skater Mirai Nagasu despite her high scores), we’re left with a dance-off perfect for reality TV, in that special slow-motion-train-wreck kind of way. 

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In one corner we have "America’s Sweetheart," the outspoken gay Olympian who feuded with Vice President Mike Pence and boycotted the team’s White House visit. In the other corner, we have the pariah of figure skating, a self-proclaimed redneck who probably would have voted for Trump if felons were allowed to vote — and thanks to a well-timed Oscar-bait movie, she's now on a mission to redeem her image and put that whole Nancy Kerrigan kneecapping business behind her.

(We also have Redskins cornerback Josh Norman, known for supporting youth programs with his non-profit organization and for generally being a badass, but we’re not paying attention to him right now. He’s probably going to win the whole thing just for that reason.) 

Because we can’t stop staring until it’s all over, we thought we’d see how the two rivals line up — not in terms of technique or choreography or anything that really matters, but how the reality TV magic might play out.

SCORES

Adam and his partner Jenna Johnson have been at the top of the scoreboard all season, coming one point shy of perfect 10s in the semi-finals last Monday. Tonya and her partner Sasha Farber have been more in the 8 to 9 range with solid but less-challenging dances. (Josh and his partner Sharna Burgess, for the record, land somewhere in the middle and keep getting better.)

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All of this is basically meaningless and you should ignore it. With the audience voting for their favorites, anybody could win. It all comes down to who stans the hardest: The Gays (go team!), skating fans who’ve forgiven Tonya, skating fans who will never forgive Tonya, football fans, and the occasionally-rabid followings of the DWTS professionals.

DANCE MOVES

The athletes will be playing to their strengths in the finale, which has its pros and cons when it comes to voting. After charging out of the gate with a RuPaul-themed cha cha, Adam and Jenna have leaned toward edgy, modern dance styles, and will end their season with a jazz routine and a daring freestyle number.

This makes for entertaining television (their cha cha went viral on YouTube), but it could be off-putting for some older viewers, and modern dancing tends to make DWTS judge Len Goodman uncomfortable. That single point denying Adam a perfect score for his contemporary dance in the semi-finals? Len’s fault.

Tonya and Sasha, on the other hand, have stuck to classic ballroom styles, including a Viennese waltz for the finale that will let Tonya twirl gracefully across the floor. Some DWTS viewers will have a much easier time connecting with that, even if it doesn’t match Adam’s technical skill. We’ll see if his sense of humor and his chemistry with Jenna can make up for it, along with votes from younger viewers.

COSTUMES

There’s nothing like ballroom dancing for skimpy, sparkly costumes, which gives figure skaters an advantage (though football star Josh has been doing just fine with his bare-chested outfits). In Adam’s case, DWTS heard the cries of his people last Monday and had him dance with no shirt at all.

The feathers may or may not be your thing, but he performed his contemporary dance beautifully enough to make the look work. And check out that eyeshadow and highlighter! So cute.

Which is all well and good, but could Adam pull off being chased around by a bear? Not the gay kind (that’s probably happened a few times) but a dude in an actual bear costume.

Laugh all you want, but many DWTS viewers find this stuff adorable, and Tonya really sold that performance. The finale will be going all-out on production and set design, so be ready for the costume department to get crazy.

CRYING

DWTS is famous for its behind-the-scenes sob stories, where celebrities shed tears over their hardships and hopefully gain a few sympathy votes. And if there’s anything we know about Tonya Harding, it’s that she excels in this category. 

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Tonya’s crying landed her a second chance at the 1994 Winter Olympics after she broke her skate lace, and the movie I, Tonya won a lot of people over when Margot Robbie’s character tearfully begged a judge not to ban her from skating. (That scene was completely fictional, but still.) Things are no different on DWTS, where Tonya has cried at least once an episode and is riding that audience sympathy all the way to the finale.

Well, two can play at that game.

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Adam has been cheerfully confident through most of the season, but he had his own vulnerable moment during the semi-finals when he talked about coming out to his mom. It was only a few seconds, but it left viewers choked up for the rest of his performance.

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DRAMA!

Dancing with the Stars would not be Dancing with the Stars without competitors bickering with each other. Let’s face it, that’s why they pitted Tonya Harding against other figure skaters in the first place.

During an interview with ET Online, Adam was asked how he felt about Tonya’s big redemption arc on the show. "I think it’s great that she’s getting to have a moment," he said, but added, "It’s also important that we remember that she was banned from skating for a reason. It wasn’t taken away from her. She was part of something that was not good and should never happen again."

"Don’t judge a book by its trailer," he later quipped in an apparent reference to the movie, but some Tonya supporters felt that he was calling her "trailer trash" and hurried over to Instagram to fight about it.

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Several of those angry comments were "liked" by Tonya’s dance partner Sasha, who posted a subtweet about how "it hurts more when it comes from people you work with". Then Jenna’s boyfriend and fellow DWTS dancer Valentin Chmerkovskiy posted his own (now-deleted) subtweet about people “starting unnecessary drama instead of just addressing the issue in person just to stay anywhere near relevant.”

Sasha later wrote an essay for Us Magazine claiming it would "mean more to Tonya" if she won because Adam and Josh have successful athletic careers and she doesn’t. He also wondered why the figure skating community hasn't embraced her by now. "America is really giving her a second chance. If America can, why can’t the skating world give her that same second chance?" 

Will the voters annoyed at Adam for speaking his mind outweigh the voters who agree with him? We’re about to find out.

The Dancing with the Stars finale airs on Monday, May 21 at 8/7c on ABC.